苹果公司CEO乔布斯拿着iPad
Phew! Thank heavens the iPad is coming. Solving the economic crisis should be a breeze-it has an app for that.
谢天谢地，iPad终于来了。解决
经济危机应该是不费吹灰之力──iPad上面有一个这样的应用程序。
Apple's new all-singing, all-dancing hand-held computer is the talk of the moment. Even thousands of miles away in London, when I staggered off the redeye Thursday morning, the front pages showed a gaunt but grinning Steve Jobs clasping his latest creation.
苹果公司(Apple)的新款掌上电脑隆重登场，成了时下街谈巷议的话题。即使是远在千里之外的伦敦，当我1月28日早晨疲惫地走下红眼航班时，也看到各大报纸的头版上都印着憔悴的乔布斯(Steve Jobs)拿着他的最新作品咧嘴而笑。
But if we can hack our way through the hype, what are the financial implications of this latest techno marvel-for consumers and for investors?
但如果我们能够在兴奋之余冷静思考，那么这款最新的神奇科技产品对于消费者和投资者都具有什么样的财务含义？
• Look out: The iPad may cost you around $1,000 after all.
- 要注意了，iPad毕竟可能要花你大约1000美元。 Yes, the headlines note the prices will start at the low, low level of $499. Mr. Jobs on Wednesday even mocked those who had predicted prices nearly twice as high. But were those earlier forecasts so wrong? If someone buys the basic 16-gigabyte model with 3G, they will pay $629 up front-plus $30 a month from AT&T for unlimited data.
是的，
新闻标题都说起价只有499美元，很低很低。1月27日乔布斯甚至还嘲笑那些预测价格接近这一数字两倍的人。但被嘲笑的这些人预测错了吗？如果有人买一台配置3G功能、容量16G的基本型号，他们将首先支付629美元，然后每个月要为
美国电话电报公司(AT&T)无流量限制的数据付出30美元。
Cost for a year: $360. Add that to your initial $629 and your cost is ... $989, plus tax (and whatever insurance you'll need to cover your portable glass and aluminium treasure). Models with more memory will cost even more.
一年数据费用是360美元。加上最开头的629美元，算起来就是989美元。另外还要上税（以及为这个玻璃与铝合金制成的宝贝上的
保险）。存储容量更大的型号还要更贵。
How often we ignore the monthly bills, or place them in a different mental category than the initial cost. But money is money.
我们经常忽略了每月支付的账单，或者是在心理上将它们归在一个与首付成本不同的类别。但每一分钱都是钱。
Botttom line? If you're getting an iPad, buying the $499 Wi-Fi-only device is surely the smartest financial move. Especially as you have to question whether the AT&T 3G network, already staggering under the strain of all that iPhone use, will really give you the full iPad experience. Streaming HD video for all? Good luck with that.
总之，如果你要买台iPad，从财务上来讲花499美元购买只具Wi-Fi功能的型号肯定是最明智的。特别是你还要考虑，AT&T的3G网络已经因为iPhone的大量使用而负累不堪，它还能不能给你带来完全的iPad体验。在线播放高清视频呢？那得看你运气好不好。
• Don't assume it will mean that much for your Apple shares.
- 别以为你持有的苹果股票会涨多少。 A lot of investing is about anticipation, and Apple stock had already risen ahead of the announcement. (There's an old saying on Wall Street: Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.)
投资在很大程度上是受预期推动的，在iPad发布以前，苹果股价已经涨了。（华尔街流传着一句老话：消息证实前买进，证实后卖出。）
How much new demand will this device generate, anyway? A 5- or 7-inch iPad might have created a new market for pocket-sized computers. But the 10-inch, 1.5-pound iPad is a netbook without a keyboard, and a heavy, bulky handheld.
退一步讲，这台设备产生的新增需求会有多大？如果iPad只有五英寸或七英寸大，或许它已经创造了一个新的口袋电脑市场。但这台机器有10英寸大，1.5磅重，其实就是一台没有键盘的上网本，一部又笨又重的掌上电脑。
As I wrote earlier this month, the best thing Steve Jobs could have done for his stockholders would have been to start handing out dividends. Brian Marshall, an analyst at Broadpoint AmTech, says the company's net cash pile is up to about $43 a share. But no dividends. Bah.
我1月份曾写道，乔布斯可以为股东做的最好事情就是开始派发股息。美国产业
研究机构Broadpoint AmTech分析师马歇尔(Brian Marshall)说，苹果公司的净现金存量很高，大约相当于每股43美元。可惜它一个子的红利也不分。
• Yes, it's a challenge for Amazon.com.
- 哈，亚马逊(Amazon)遇到对手了。 Steve Jobs wants the iPad, and Apple's new 'iBook' store, to go head to head against Amazon's Kindle for the e-reader market.
乔布斯想用iPad和苹果新的iBook商店进军电子阅读器市场，和亚马逊的Kindle一决高下。
You have to figure sooner or later Amazon will cut its prices. The Kindle DX, currently $489, has to come down. So, too, do the charges for Kindle newspaper and magazine subscriptions. (Amazon has plenty of room to cut: Its margins are reported to be huge.)
你肯定会想，亚马逊迟早会降价。Kindle DX目前的价格是489美元，必须得降。Kindle上的报刊杂志订阅费也得降。（亚马逊降价空间很大，因为据报道它的利润率相当高。）
But will the iPad really be a Kindle killer? Here's a contrarian case:
但iPad真的能干掉Kindle吗？下面是一种不利于iPad的情况：
Serious e-book readers don't want a multifunction device with a light-emitting screen. Most are grownups with Computer Screen Fatigue, if not Computer Screen Revulsion. They spend far too long staring at those screens for work. They want to read normally, by ambient light.
严肃的电子书读者并不想要一台带发光屏幕的多功能设备。多数用户都是成人，没有“电脑屏幕厌恶症”也有“电脑屏幕疲劳症”。
工作中盯住电脑屏幕的时间实在是太漫长，他们想在普通光照下像平时看书那样阅读。
The Kindle-and other devices that use a low-power e-Ink screen-also offers much-longer battery life. And since you should be able to read Kindle e-books on an iPad anyway, through the iPhone's Kindle app, it may not become a either-or matter.
Kindle等阅读器采用的则是耗电很低的电子墨水屏幕──电池寿命也要长很多。另外，你应该能够在iPad上通过iPhone上面的Kindle应用程序阅读Kindle电子书，所以或许不会遇到一个非此即彼的选择。
This battle is just heating up. The bigger concern for Amazon investors may be their firm's lofty share price, now trading in the neighborhood of 40 times forecasted earnings.
市场争夺刚刚开始升温。亚马逊的投资者更大的担忧恐怕还是该公司股价过高，目前它的市盈率接近40倍。
• The real winners from the iPad-and the mobile Internet boom it represents-ought to be the cellular carriers.
- 在iPad及其代表的移动互联网热潮中，真正的赢家应该是手机运营商。 It's a case of supply and demand. Thanks to smartphones, mobile computers, streaming videos, applications and the like, use of their networks is rocketing. AT&T has struggled to cope with the traffic caused by all its iPhone customers. You have to wonder why it was so keen to sign up iPad users, too, at just $30 a month for unlimited data. It may end up suffering from the winner's curse.
这是一个供需问题。得益于智能手机、移动电脑、在线视频、应用程序等等，对运营商
网络的使用正在飙升。iPhone用户带来的流量已经让AT&T难于应付。它为什么如此急切地也要和iPad的用户签约，无流量限制的数据一个月只要30美元，让
人生疑。最终它可能会受累于“赢者的诅咒”(winner's curse)。
Rival Verizon Wireless (jointly owned by Verizon Communications and Vodafone Group) supposedly 'missed out' on the iPhone and the iPad, but it, too, will benefit. Too much traffic on one network will drive customers to switch to the others. The cellular stocks are not expensive based on traditional measures. (Verizon has a 6.3% dividend yield.)
据信竞争对手Verizon Wireless（Verizon Communications和沃达丰空中通讯公司(Vodafone Group)的合资公司）“错失”了iPhone和iPad的良机，但它也会受益。当一个网络中的流量过多，消费者就会换到其他网络。从一般指标来看，手机运营商的股价并不是很高。（Verizon股息率为6.3%。）
One analyst who covers Apple told me privately that the one worry that kept him up at nights was that sooner or later the networks were going to start raising their prices for data traffic, especially for the iPhone. They should. They control the bandwidth, which is the scarce resource in the supply chain. If they don't make it pay, it will be their own fault.
一位关注苹果公司的分析师私下对我说，有一个让他晚上睡不着觉的情况是，手机运营商迟早会提高流量费用，特别是iPhone的流量费。它们提价是应该的。它们控制着带宽，这是供应链上的稀缺资源。如果不从中获得回报，那就是它们自己的失误。
Cellular networks may be the sleeper stocks in this story. Those who crave excitement may find all they need in Apple and Amazon.
本文提到的这些公司中，手机网络运营商的股价可能没什么起伏。想得到刺激的人或许可以从苹果或亚马逊的股票中满足需求。
Brett Arends 华尔街日报
